The High Council of Finance Public (HCFP) judge “unlikely” reducing the public deficit to 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) which has committed the Government in its project 2017 budget
The HCFP, in a notice to the government that the Agency France Press has procured Tuesday, September 28 and will be officially unveiled Wednesday calls more widely of “uncertain” the return of the deficit below 3% of GDP, because of “risks” weighing on public spending but also the character “optimistic” growth forecast restraint by Bercy.
The Finance Bill (PLF) 2017, which will be unveiled Wednesday by the government forecasts growth of 1.5% of GDP, the same as in 2016. A figure that the government decided maintain despite the uncertainties relating to the “Brexit.”
This growth assumption “is optimistic given the bearish factors that have materialized in recent months” notes the High Council in this opinion, whose guidelines were announced by the daily Les Echos .
The HCFP recalls and “most international organizations and economic institutes” have lowered their forecasts for the country in the OECD picture, which now provides 1.3% growth in France next year, or the IMF, which expects 1.2%.
The High Council, an independent body charged with assessing the credibility of the estimates of the government, and has doubts about forecasts of revenue retained in the draft 2017 budget, considering the assumptions of Bercy “favorable” .
“Risks expenses are higher in 2017 than in previous years” also adds the institution chaired by Didier Migaud, who qualified as “unrealistic” the savings provided on UNEDIC, which manages unemployment insurance. It also points to the “potential impact on the public balance of the announced recapitalization of companies public energy sector” at know Areva and EDF.
“There will be no slippage”
These factors make “improbable reductions in deficits under the PLF” 1.6% in 2016 to 1.1% of GDP in 2017 to “structural balance “ (that is to say outside factors related to the environment) and from 3.3% to 2.7% for the nominal balance.
In presenting last Tuesday its economic forecast for 2017, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Michel Sapin, had tried to be reassuring, assuring that the government would hold its deficit reduction target. “There will be no slippage in public finances in the budget, in any case as long as we have the responsibility” he said.